GRADE 3 • KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL
Sam F. Davis Stakes 2026
URIN v3.6 neural network predictions for the Grade 3 Kentucky Derby prep race at Tampa Bay Downs. 20 qualifying points to the winner. $250,000 purse, 9 runners.
Time to Post — February 7, 2026 — 5:30 PM ET
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URIN v3.6 — Unified Racing Intelligence Network
Verified performance metrics from our production neural network
89.12%
URIN AUC Accuracy
PyTorch Neural Network
5.20M
Training Samples
5 Sports Unified
908M+
Total Data Points
Cross-Sport Features
<0.3s
Prediction Speed
INVICTUS Dual-Output
INVICTUS dual-output system with champion pattern matching against 91 historically elite performers
URIN v3.6 Predictions Live
All 9 runners analyzed by URIN v3.6 with INVICTUS scoring, champion pattern matching, and value assessment. Predictions generated pre-race and cryptographically timestamped.
Complete
URIN v3.6
89.12% AUC — 5.2M samples
Complete
INVICTUS
Dual-output + champion match
Complete
9 Runners
Full field analyzed
Complete
SHA-256
Cryptographic timestamp
Road to the Kentucky Derby 2026
Key prep races and their points allocation for Derby qualification
✓ January 31
Holy Bull Stakes (G3)
Gulfstream Park, 1 1/16 miles
20-10-6-4-2 Points
February 7, 2026
Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) ← TODAY
Tampa Bay Downs, 1 1/16 miles
20-10-6-4-2 Points
February 14, 2026
Risen Star Stakes (G2)
Fair Grounds, 1 1/8 miles
50-20-10-5 Points
March 1, 2026
Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2)
Gulfstream Park, 1 1/16 miles
50-20-10-5 Points
March 29, 2026
Florida Derby (G1)
Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8 miles
100-40-20-10 Points
April 5, 2026
Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Santa Anita Park, 1 1/8 miles
100-40-20-10 Points
May 2, 2026
Kentucky Derby (G1)
Churchill Downs, 1¼ miles — $5 million purse
The Run for the Roses
How URIN Analyzes This Race
Cross-sport pattern recognition applied to thoroughbred analysis
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INVICTUS Scoring
Dual-output system produces win probability and value score independently. Each runner scored 0-100 on the INVICTUS scale based on 128 neural network features.
02
Champion Matching
Pattern matching against 91 historically elite performers including Arrogate, Nyquist, Uncle Mo. Identifies behavioral parallels that pure statistics miss.
03
Cross-Sport Transfer
Insights from F1 tire degradation, NASCAR field dynamics, and MotoGP fatigue curves inform biological racing analysis through shared physics patterns.
04
Value Assessment
AI probability vs. morning line odds to identify UNDERLAY (overvalued), FAIR, VALUE, and HIGH VALUE opportunities in the betting market.
05
Trainer Patterns
Historical trainer performance in Derby preps. Brad Cox, Todd Pletcher, and Saffie Joseph Jr. patterns analyzed for Tampa Bay Downs conditions.
06
SHA-256 Verification
Cryptographic timestamping ensures predictions cannot be altered after race results. Tamper-proof audit trail for institutional accountability.
Sam F. Davis Stakes 2026 FAQ
What is RaceHP.ai's top pick for the Sam F. Davis Stakes?
URIN v3.6 picks Confessional (PP1, Flavien Prat, Brad Cox) as the top selection at 15.6% win probability with INVICTUS score 67.1. He matches the champion pattern of Arrogate at 95.5% similarity. His 2nd-place finish at Gulfstream behind next-out Holy Bull Stakes winner Nearly confirms his class.
What is the best value play in the Sam F. Davis?
Max Capacity (PP8, 30-1 morning line) is URIN's top value play with 15.3% win probability — a +10.8% edge. He matches Arrogate at 97.4%, the highest champion match in the entire field. Richard Sillaman trains, Jevian Toledo rides.
Why is Renegade ranked low despite being the favorite?
Renegade (8-5 morning line) is ranked 6th by URIN with only 9.7% probability — a -18.1% edge (UNDERLAY). Despite being a Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr. runner, he's a maiden in 3 career starts. His DQ from a maiden win at Aqueduct and 2nd in the Remsen to Paladin make him the most overbet horse in the field.
When is the Sam F. Davis Stakes and how many Derby points?
The Sam F. Davis Stakes is Saturday, February 7, 2026 at Tampa Bay Downs, Race 11, post time approximately 5:30 PM ET. Distance is 1 1/16 miles on dirt with a $250,000 purse. Derby points awarded: 20-10-6-4-2 to the top five finishers.
How does URIN v3.6 differ from traditional handicapping?
URIN is a PyTorch neural network trained on 5.20 million racing samples across 5 sports (horse racing, F1, NASCAR, IndyCar, MotoGP). It processes 128 features per prediction in under 0.3 seconds. The INVICTUS dual-output system and champion matching provide insights that single-sport statistical models cannot achieve.
What is the INVICTUS scoring system?
INVICTUS is URIN's dual-output scoring system that produces both a win probability and an independent value assessment. Each runner receives a score from 0-100. Additionally, runners are matched against a database of 91 champion thoroughbreds to identify behavioral parallels — such as Confessional matching Arrogate's explosive late-kick pattern.
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