35TH RUNNING • GRADE 3
Holy Bull Stakes 2026
Neural network predictions for the Grade 3 Kentucky Derby prep race at Gulfstream Park. 20 qualifying points to the winner. Gulfstream Park, Hallandale Beach, Florida.
Time to Post — January 31, 2026 — 5:45 PM ET
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Our Horse Racing Neural Network
Verified performance metrics from our production ML model
94.21%
AUC-ROC Accuracy
Production Model — GitHub README
2,000+
Variables Per Horse
Neural Network Features
2.2M+
Training Entries
2005-2025 Dataset
<0.3s
Prediction Speed
Per Race Analysis
17.2 percentage points above academic benchmark (0.77 AUC) — 22.3% relative improvement
Temporal Validation Split — No Future Data Leakage
Training Period
2005-01-01 to 2022-12-31
1,788,269 entries
Gap (Excluded)
2023-01-01 to 2023-06-30
64,888 entries
Testing Period
2023-07-01 to 2025-10-14
361,065 entries
Derby Predictions Coming Soon
Individual horse predictions will be generated as contenders qualify through the Road to the Kentucky Derby points system. Our neural network requires confirmed entrants and recent prep race data to produce accurate, verified predictions.
Complete
Model Training
94.21% AUC on historical data
Complete
Data Pipeline
Live API integration active
Pending
Derby Field
Awaiting qualified entrants
Pending
Predictions
Generated race week
DERBY STANDINGS
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points Leaders
Last Updated: January 18, 2026 • Updates weekly after major prep races. Top 20 points earners qualify for the 152nd Kentucky Derby.
#1
Ted Noffey
Into Mischief • Todd Pletcher • 4-0 Undefeated
BC Juvenile (G1), Hopeful (G1), Breeders' Futurity (G1)
40 pts
#2
Spice Runner
Gun Runner • Steven Asmussen
Iroquois Stakes
11 pts
#3
Paladin
Curlin • Chad Brown • $1.9M Purchase
Remsen Stakes (G2)
10 pts
#4
Napoleon Solo
Liam's Map • Chad Brown • $40K Bargain
Champagne Stakes (G1)
10 pts
#5
Chip Honcho
Gun Runner • Kenny McPeek
Gun Runner Stakes
10 pts
🇯🇵
Pyromancer
Pyro • Godolphin • Japan Road Contender
Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun (20 pts Japan Road)
JAPAN
⚠️
Bob Baffert horses (Litmus Test - 19 pts, Brant - 0 pts) earn NO Gulfstream Park points due to suspension. They must transfer to eligible trainers to qualify for the Derby.
Road to the Kentucky Derby 2026
Key prep races and their points allocation for Derby qualification
January 31, 2026
Holy Bull Stakes (G3)
Gulfstream Park, 1 1/16 miles
10-4-2-1 Points
February 14, 2026
Risen Star Stakes (G2)
Fair Grounds, 1 1/8 miles
50-20-10-5 Points
March 1, 2026
Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2)
Gulfstream Park, 1 1/16 miles
50-20-10-5 Points
March 14, 2026
Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3)
Turfway Park, 1 1/8 miles
20-8-4-2 Points
March 21, 2026
Louisiana Derby (G2)
Fair Grounds, 1 3/16 miles
50-20-10-5 Points
March 28, 2026
UAE Derby (G2)
Meydan, 1 3/16 miles
50-20-10-5 Points
March 29, 2026
Florida Derby (G1)
Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8 miles
100-40-20-10 Points
April 5, 2026
Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Santa Anita Park, 1 1/8 miles
100-40-20-10 Points
April 5, 2026
Blue Grass Stakes (G1)
Keeneland, 1 1/8 miles
100-40-20-10 Points
April 5, 2026
Wood Memorial (G2)
Aqueduct, 1 1/8 miles
50-20-10-5 Points
April 11, 2026
Arkansas Derby (G1)
Oaklawn Park, 1 1/8 miles
100-40-20-10 Points
May 2, 2026
Kentucky Derby (G1)
Churchill Downs, 1¼ miles — $5 million purse
The Run for the Roses
How We Analyze Derby Contenders
The methodology our neural network uses for thoroughbred analysis
01
Speed Figure Analysis
Weighted analysis of Beyer and other speed figures with adjustment for track variant, pace scenarios, and class level of competition.
02
Pedigree Evaluation
Statistical analysis of sire and dam bloodlines for stamina at classic distances. Distance aptitude indicators for 10 furlongs.
03
Pace Projection
Race shape modeling based on confirmed field. Early speed identification and closing kick analysis for large field dynamics.
04
Track Bias Detection
Gulfstream Park surface analysis including rail position value, moisture impact, and historical Derby day bias patterns.
05
Trainer Patterns
Historical trainer performance in Grade 1 classics. Prep race spacing preferences and workout pattern analysis.
06
Form Cycle Analysis
Peak performance timing prediction based on race history, rest periods, and physical maturation curve for 3-year-olds.
Holy Bull Stakes 2026 FAQ
What is RaceHP.ai's accuracy for Holy Bull Stakes predictions?
Our horse racing neural network achieves 94.21% AUC-ROC accuracy, verified through strict temporal validation on 361,065 test entries from 2023-2025. This is 17.2 percentage points above the academic benchmark of 0.77 AUC, representing a 22.3% relative improvement. Our models use walk-forward historical statistics with no future data leakage.
How many variables does RaceHP analyze for Derby predictions?
Our neural network analyzes 2,000+ variables per horse including Beyer Speed Figures, pedigree analytics (sire/dam stamina profiles), pace projections, track bias patterns, trainer/jockey combinations, form cycle analysis, and weather conditions. Each variable is verified to be available pre-race.
When is the 2026 Holy Bull Stakes?
The 35th Holy Bull Stakes is scheduled for Saturday, January 31, 2026 at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida. Post time is approximately 5:45 PM ET. The race distance is 1 1/16 miles (8.5 furlongs) with a purse of $250,000.
How does RaceHP's AI methodology differ from traditional handicapping?
Traditional handicapping relies on human pattern recognition and limited variables. RaceHP's neural network processes 2,000+ variables simultaneously using a deep ensemble trained on 1.78 million historical race entries. We generate predictions in under 0.3 seconds with cryptographic SHA-256 verification.
When will Holy Bull Stakes 2026 predictions be available?
Our AI continuously tracks Road to the Kentucky Derby contenders throughout the prep season. Preliminary predictions become available after major prep races (Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes). Final predictions with confidence intervals are published 48 hours before post time.
What is the Road to the Kentucky Derby points system?
The Road to the Kentucky Derby is a points-based qualification system. Points are awarded to top four finishers: 100-40-20-10 for Grade 1 races, 50-20-10-5 for Grade 2, and 10-4-2-1 for Grade 3. The top 20 point earners qualify for the starting gate.
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