What Are Beyer Speed Figures?
Beyer Speed Figures are numerical ratings that measure how fast a horse ran in a race, adjusted for track conditions and distance. Created by Andrew Beyer in the 1970s and published in the Daily Racing Form, they've become the gold standard for comparing horses across different tracks.
A horse earning an 85 Beyer at Churchill Downs can be directly compared to a horse earning an 85 at Santa Anita — even though the tracks are completely different. This normalization is what makes Beyer figures so valuable.
Before Beyer figures existed, handicappers struggled to compare horses from different circuits. A fast time at one track might be mediocre at another due to surface differences, elevation, and configuration. Beyer solved this by creating a universal scale.
The Beyer Scale: Reading the Numbers
Beyer figures typically range from 0 to 120+, with higher numbers indicating faster performances:
Grade I Stakes
Graded Stakes
Stakes/Allowance
Claiming
Lower Level
Each Beyer point roughly equals one-fifth of a second (about one length) at sprint distances. A horse with a 95 theoretically ran one second faster than a horse with a 90 in similar conditions.
Kentucky Derby Winner Data (2015-2025)
Real data shows what elite Beyer figures look like. Kentucky Derby winners and their winning Beyer figures:
| Year | Winner | Trainer | Beyer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Sovereignty | Bill Mott | 104 |
| 2024 | Mystik Dan | Kenny McPeek | 100 |
| 2023 | Mage | Gustavo Delgado | 105 |
| 2022 | Rich Strike | Eric Reed | 101 |
| 2021 | Medina Spirit* | Bob Baffert | 102 |
| *Medina Spirit was disqualified in February 2022 after a positive test for betamethasone. Mandaloun was officially declared the 2021 Kentucky Derby winner. | |||
| 2020 | Authentic | Bob Baffert | 105 |
| 2019 | Country House | Bill Mott | 99 |
| 2018 | Justify | Bob Baffert | 103 |
| 2017 | Always Dreaming | Todd Pletcher | 102 |
| 2016 | Nyquist | Doug O'Neill | 103 |
| 2015 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | 105 |
Key observation: Kentucky Derby winners typically earn Beyer figures between 97-107. A horse entering with a prep race figure of 95+ is competitive; below 90 suggests they may be outclassed.
See how our neural network analyzes horses entering major stakes races: View live AI predictions →
How Beyer Figures Are Calculated
While the exact formula is proprietary, Beyer figures rely on three core components:
1. Raw Finishing Time
The horse's actual time, measured to hundredths of a second. This is the starting point.
2. Track Variant
A daily adjustment based on how fast or slow the track was running. If the track was slow, horses get a boost; if fast, they're adjusted down. Calculated by analyzing all races that day.
3. Par Times
Benchmark times for each distance at each track, based on typical class levels. A $50,000 claimer should run slower than a Grade I stakes horse.
Beyer = (Par Time - Actual Time) × Distance Factor + Track Variant + Base
Using Beyer Figures for Handicapping
Smart handicappers don't just look at the most recent Beyer figure. Here's how professionals use them:
Pattern Analysis
- Improving pattern: 72 → 76 → 80 suggests upward trajectory
- Consistent performer: 85, 84, 86, 85 — reliable but unlikely to improve dramatically
- Bounce candidate: Career-best figure often followed by regression
- Hidden form: Poor recent figure explained by bad trip may rebound
Class Context
An 85 Beyer earned against Grade II competition is more valuable than an 85 in a $25,000 claiming race. Always consider the competition.
Combining Factors
Beyer figures work best when combined with pace analysis, trainer/jockey patterns, track bias data, and distance/surface preferences. This is exactly why AI-powered handicapping outperforms manual analysis — neural networks process all these variables simultaneously.
How AI Uses Speed Figures
Traditional handicappers look at Beyer figures in isolation. RaceHP's neural network integrates speed figures with 144 other features to find non-linear patterns humans miss:
- Pace projection modeling — How today's Beyers interact given the likely pace scenario
- Regression detection — Identifying when horses are due for bounce or improvement
- Value spotting — Finding horses whose figures suggest they're undervalued
- Multi-race weighting — Optimally balancing recent vs. distant performances
Alternative Speed Figure Systems
Beyer isn't the only speed figure system. Here's how the major alternatives compare:
| System | Source | Key Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Beyer | Daily Racing Form | Industry standard, widely available |
| Ragozin Sheets | Subscription | Lower = faster; includes "bounce" patterns |
| Thoro-Graph | Subscription | Adjusts for weight carried, ground loss |
| TimeformUS | TimeformUS | Includes pace figures + detailed trip notes |
| BRIS Speed | Equibase | Different variant calculation method |
Many serious handicappers use multiple systems to triangulate. RaceHP's AI incorporates data from multiple sources to build a more complete picture.